Deutsche Bank

Human Resources
Report 2017

Workforce management and rolling forecast

Workforce management

With its new workforce management concept introduced at the end of 2016, Deutsche Bank achieves cost savings, while managing organizational change, strengthening its corporate culture and facilitating cross-divisional collaboration through a consistent approach to planning and defining roles.

The concept includes a global position management (GPM) system which defines positions within the bank’s organizational structure and connects them with a specific profession and role framework. The framework provides a consistent, global classification of roles and role profiles in all divisions and regions, thereby creating transparency regarding all types of activity within the bank. The GPM system maps the bank’s reporting and management structure, reflecting responsibilities and decision-making processes. The new system also computes the number and type of positions required throughout the organization.

Staff structure by major job categories
Staff structure by major job categories (bar chart)Staff structure by major job categories (bar chart)

Rolling forecast – planning ahead

Workforce costs are one of the largest cost categories in banking, which makes it essential to plan and subsequently control future headcount. Deutsche Bank has recognized the growing importance of a realistic outlook when it comes to future employee capacity and workforce cost development and has invested in the development of a forecast model. This model draws on the now-indispensable method of rolling planning in sales, and applies this approach to workforce-related areas. It delivers innovative and strategic analysis to support forward-thinking workforce decisions.

The rolling forecast by no means replaces the annual planning process, but rather adds another dimension to it. Annual planning sets binding requirements and lays out the target situation Deutsche Bank is aiming for, while the rolling forecast, which is updated monthly, ensures the forecast is as accurate as possible, taking the most recent developments into account. 

The short forecast period and the frequency of the updates compared to annual planning significantly enhance the quality of the employee capacity and workforce cost forecasts, considerably easing target management. The method for creating the rolling forecast has been standardized across the whole group. This enables centralized, aggregated insight into cost drivers and lays the foundations for central reporting and more in-depth scenario analysis. The system uses data from a variety of sources to calculate a trend forecast per quarter, which reflects forecast employment figures and associated workforce costs.

Including average employee fluctuation in the same months of the previous year reveals the impact of seasonal effects such as recruitment dates for university graduates. Besides the use of statistical instruments, another important aspect in preparing the trend forecast is to factor in the strategy and market situation of a particular division. This enables future trend deviations, such as phases of growth or consolidation, to be reflected.

A special information module compares the forecast figures with the planning figures. In the event of any significant discrepancies, the respective division, HR and Finance discuss the reasons for the discrepancy so that potential countermeasures can be discussed and agreed. Later, the forecast figures are cross-checked against actual workforce development and actual workforce costs, providing another opportunity to make adjustments to the forecast method.

Embedded in a user-friendly platform accessible to all relevant stakeholders, the rolling forecast quickly flags workforce overcapacity or undercapacity. Comparing the forecast with the actual figures affirms the accuracy of the model. This is Deutsche Bank’s response to the growing requirements in workforce forecasting and planning. The success of the rolling forecast is attributable to the partnership between HR and Finance as well as the business divisions and infrastructure functions.